QTS-062 · Detailed business case · 2020
Queenstown Business Case (NZ Upgrade Programme Queenstown Transport Detailed Business Case) – main volume, redacted
Part of: Rapid transit evidence →
The NZUP Queenstown Business Case main volume compiles the Summary Report and the Strategic Context, Options Assessment, Preferred Option Assessment, Programme Sequencing, Economic, Financial, Commercial and Management cases, plus the Assurance Process with peer reviews. It was developed under the Wakatipu Way to Go partnership (Waka Kotahi, QLDC, ORC). It finds that SH6A is at capacity and that 40% of SH6A peak trips must be by non-car modes by 2028, rising to 60% by 2048. The preferred programme rests on three pillars: targeted infrastructure (NZUP $90m, CIP $85m), road-based Bus Rapid Transit services, and travel behaviour change. The sequencing table lists 11 elements with lead agencies. The BCR is 2.3 for the elements recommended in the next ten years and 1.5 for the full programme. Phase 8, 'Future offline public transport option (e.g. a gondola)', is costed at $262m with a BCR of 1.7. It is classed 'Other activities – for later re-evaluation', with 'Further investigation beyond 2030'. The Economic Case recommends the offline PT case be revisited after the 2024-27 NLTP. Commute found it fit for purpose; EY and Flow found the work adequate; AECOM, Arup and Waka Kotahi's IQA provided comments, with caveats on mode shift, parking and funding.
What the document says
Context and purpose: This 467-page OIA-released volume (author names redacted under s 9(2)(a)) is the main body of the Queenstown Business Case. It is described as 'effectively a Detailed Programme Business Case' (p.34). It merged the Frankton to Queenstown SSBC and the Queenstown Town Centre DBC, with HCPT taken to IBC level, and added Frankton and Ladies Mile part-way through (pp.8, 111). Its components are the Summary Report, 12 Nov 2020 (pp.1-24), a programme poster (pp.25-28), Strategic Context (pp.29-103), Options Assessment (pp.104-184), Preferred Option Assessment (pp.185-231), Programme Sequencing (pp.232-238), Economic Case (pp.239-252), Financial Case (pp.253-275), Commercial Case (pp.276-285), Management Case (pp.286-310) and Assurance Process with review appendices (pp.311-467). The last part includes an annotated 2 Oct 2020 Final Draft Summary (pp.445-467).
Case for change: Peak-day population is forecast to rise from about 120,000 (2018) to 200,000 (2048). SH6A practical capacity was exceeded on 140 days in 2019, and cars make up 84% of SH6A trips (pp.8-9). Without investment, the economic loss is estimated at $670m-$1.2b over 40 years (p.9).
Options: More than 300 ideas were distilled into nine packages (p.11). An MCA workshop on 2 August 2019 took Bus Max, Trackless Tram and Mass rapid transit forward and omitted Ferry and Do Minimum (p.133). A road-based system was found to provide capacity to about 2051 (p.134). SH6A widening would cost about $200m in property and affect 169 properties (p.142); virtual priority was preferred.
Preferred programme: The three pillars are targeted infrastructure, BRT-style PT services (fleet upgraded towards bi-articulated 'trackless tram' vehicles), and travel behaviour change including parking management (pp.12-15). Committed works are NZUP ($106m in the sequencing table, against $90m approved and a $16.2m shortfall, p.290) and CIP ($120m including Arterials Stage 1). Recommended items needing funding approval are TDM ($1.8m), PT services, on-road PT ($80m plus opex rising to $24m a year by 2027), Stanley/Shotover Streets ($24m), Town Centre Stage 2 ($17m) and Arterial Stage 2 ($43m). Later items are Stanley Street redevelopment ($46m), Arterial Stage 3 ($118m; $61m in the Financial Case, p.268) and offline PT ($262m) (p.19). For 2021-24 the activities are a Waka Kotahi TDM SSBC ($1.72m), an ORC PT Services and Infrastructure DBC ($1.5m) and QLDC's CIP obligations ($1.70m) (p.21).
Economics: The case uses 60-year NPVs at a 4% discount rate (p.249). The PT services and infrastructure programme costs $162m against $374m of benefits (BCR 2.3). The full programme, excluding Phase 8, costs $295m against $445m (BCR 1.5) (p.250). Phase 2 (NZUP-enabled PT services) has a BCR of 3.3 (p.249). Sensitivity tests keep the BCR above 1.0 (p.251). Benefits depend on mode shift through 'effective parking management and travel demand management' (p.251).
Delivery: The Waka Kotahi/QLDC Alliance was tendered on 2 October 2020 (p.279). Leads for the remainder are QLDC (local assets), Waka Kotahi (state highway) and ORC (PT) (p.291). Key risks include funding misalignment, property, slow decisions and interface misalignment (p.22).
Assurance: Reviews came from an Independent Challenge Team (Pete Clark, Geoff Cooper, Barry Mein), partner reviewers (Tony Sizemore, Garry Maloney, Tony Pickard), AECOM, Arup, Matthew Roberts (QLDC), Commute, Flow and EY, and the Waka Kotahi IQA (pp.314-315, 404). Commute found the case 'fit for purpose' (p.410). EY called the WEB analysis 'robust and defensible' (p.436).
Mass rapid transit: MRT was in scope from the start, renamed HCPT and assessed only to IBC level (pp.34, 111). The mass rapid transit passed the August 2019 MCA (p.133). It was 'not taken forward to the Preferred Programme... as it falls well outside of the next few NLTP periods' (p.134), but stays as Phase 8 with Waka Kotahi/ORC as lead (p.19). The Management Case instead lists ORC/QLDC for an offline PT corridor business case update and route protection beyond 2030 (p.297). Phase 8 timing is given as '2050+' (p.194), with an assumed implementation date of 2051 in the Economic Case (p.248). The Economic Case gives Phase 8 a 60-year NPV cost of $114m, $187m of benefits (all unmet-demand WEBs) and a BCR of 1.6 (pp.247, 249); the sequencing table gives $262m and 1.7. Possible co-funding of the off-line corridor with private investors is listed (p.270). TN30's recommendation to park offline PT and review it in 2028 sits in Appendices B5/C12, not in this volume.
Key figures
- NZUP allocation $90m; CIP $50m Arterials Stage 1 + $35m streetscape (p.8)
- Peak day population ~120,000 (2018) to 200,000 (2048) (p.8)
- SH6A practical capacity exceeded on 140 days in 2019; private car 84% of SH6A trips (p.9)
- Non-car share needed on SH6A peak: 16% to 40% by 2028; 60% by 2048 (p.9)
- Economic loss without investment $670m-$1.2b over 40 years (p.9)
- BCR 2.3 for elements recommended in next ten years; 1.5 full programme (p.16)
- Sequencing table: NZUP $106m; CIP $120m; TDM $1.8m (BCR 3.5); On-road PT $80m + opex to $24m/yr; Stanley/Shotover $24m (BCR 1.6); Town Centre Stage 2 $17m (BCR 1.5); Arterial Stage 2 $43m (BCR 0.9); Stanley St redevelopment $46m; Arterial Stage 3 $118m (BCR 0.2); Offline PT $262m (BCR 1.7) (p.19)
- Next NLTP activities: Waka Kotahi $1,722,821; ORC $1,500,000; QLDC $1,695,243 plus CIP (p.21)
- Economic Case 60-yr NPV (4%): Phase 2 cost $106m / benefit $350m BCR 3.3; Phase 8 offline PT cost $114m / benefit $187m BCR 1.6 (p.249)
- PT services and infrastructure programme $162m/$374m BCR 2.3; Full programme (excl. Phase 8) $295m/$445m BCR 1.5 (p.250)
- Road-based PT practical capacity to about 2051 (p.134)
- SH6A widening property cost ~$200m; 169 properties affected, 77 outright purchases (p.142)
- NZUP funding shortfall $16.2m (p.290); Alliance budget estimate $200M (p.279)
- PT OPEX ~$200M net of farebox over 60 years (p.270)
Rapid transit
Mass rapid transit means light rail, gondola/cable car, bus rapid transit and similar dedicated rapid-transit technologies. It does not include ordinary bus services or ferries.
Substantive. Discusses, assesses, recommends or programmes mass rapid transit.
Mass rapid transit passed the multi-criteria assessment but was excluded from the funded programme; retained as Phase 8 offline public transport ($262m, BCR 1.7 in the sequencing table; 1.6 in the Economic Case) for re-evaluation beyond 2030.
The volume records that the project began with 'Mass Rapid Transit (subsequently referred to as High Capacity Public Transport, HCPT) to be investigated to an Indicative Business Case (IBC) level' (p.34). At the 2 August 2019 MCA, Mass rapid transit was 'Take forward for assessment', with a 'Potential fatal flaw in consentability due to visual impacts' (p.133). The Options Assessment states that a road-based system 'could provide practical capacity through to 2051'. It adds that 'An off-road option (most likely gondola) would be required in the longer term' but was not taken forward 'as it falls well outside of the next few NLTP periods' (p.134). The Gorge Road hub site was retained for potential mass rapid transit, and the Frankton hub location chosen to be future-proofed (pp.137, 139). Phase 8 is 'Future offline public transport option (e.g. a gondola)' (p.242). It is timed '2050+' (p.194), with an assumed date of 2051 (p.248). The sequencing table lists it at $262m, BCR 1.7, lead Waka Kotahi/ORC, 'Further investigation beyond 2030' (p.19). The Economic Case recommends 'the case for offline PT is revisited after the 24-27 NLTP period' (p.252). The IQA judged the offline PT solution ($262m) 'unlikely to be supportable at this stage' as 'too far in the future' (p.395). It also noted that a 'new offline solution is considered the only feasible option' once the network reaches severe over-capacity by 2048 (p.401). TN30's 'parked and reviewed in 2028' wording is in the appendices (APX_B, APX_C11).
"An off-road option (most likely gondola) would be required in the longer term to provide any additional step-change in capacity, but was not taken forward to the Preferred Programme in the Queenstown Business Case as it falls well outside of the next few NLTP periods." (p.134) | "Phase 8 – Future offline public transport option (e.g. a gondola) – includes an offline Frankton Bus Hub." (p.242) | "Although the assumed implementation date is pushed out to 2051, the benefits calculated are still significant indicating that an offline option will be worthy of further consideration at the appropriate time." (p.248) | "Similarly, although the analysis demonstrates that an offline PT corridor is not required at this moment in time, the long term benefits are significant. It is recommended that the case for offline PT is revisited after the 24-27 NLTP period." (p.251-252) | "Arterials Stage 3 ($61m) and offline PT solution ($262m) unlikely to be supportable at this stage – low BCR and too far in the future respectively." (p.395) | "Longer term, the provision of an offline public transport link between Frankton and Queenstown will deliver an alternative corridor that provides full separation from the road network." (p.17) | "Co-funding of the off-line PT corridor with private investors" (p.270)
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Actions recorded
Deliver SH6A corridor, SH6 Grant Road to Kawarau Falls Bridge and Ladies Mile improvements (NZUP); committed, no further approvals.
Not assessed · NZTA · 21-24 NLTP
SH6A Improvements, GR2KFB Improvements and Ladies Mile Improvements | Waka Kotahi
Deliver Arterials Stage 1 and Town Centre Upgrade Stage 1 (CIP funded); committed activity.
Not assessed · QLDC · 21-24 NLTP
Arterials – Stage 1, Town Centre Upgrade – Stage 1 | QLDC
Implement a travel demand management package ($1.8m, BCR 3.5) to support mode shift.
Not assessed · NZTA · Ongoing over multiple periods
Travel Demand Management package | QLDC / ORC / Waka Kotahi
Prepare a Travel Behaviour Change single stage business case with preliminary work on Stanley and Shotover Street improvements ($1,722,821).
Not assessed · NZTA · Next NLTP period (2021-24)
Waka Kotahi | Travel Behaviour Change SSBC along with preliminary work
Prepare a Public Transport Services and Infrastructure detailed business case ($1.5m) to confirm BRT services, fleet, stops, hubs and depot funding.
Not assessed · ORC · Next NLTP period (2021-24)
ORC (excluding opex) | PT Services and Infrastructure DBC | $1,500,000
Meet CIP obligations plus small-scale changes in Old Frankton, preliminary wayfinding and travel behaviour change interventions ($1,695,243).
Not assessed · QLDC · Next NLTP period (2021-24)
QLDC | CIP obligations plus small scale changes in Old Frankton
Improve PT services within the existing contract (gross opex rising from $8m to $11m a year).
Not assessed · ORC · 21-24 investigation; staged implementation from 24-27
PT Services Improvements | ORC
Implement on-road PT service improvements including the Frankton hub ($80m plus opex ramping to $24m a year by 2027).
Not assessed · ORC · Staged from 27-30
On Road PT Service Improvements | ORC
Show all 26 actions
Deliver Stanley Street and Shotover Street improvements including Stanley Street bus hub stage 1 ($24m, BCR 1.6).
Not assessed · NZTA · 24-27
Stanley Street and Shotover Street Improvements | Waka Kotahi
Deliver Town Centre Upgrade Stage 2 ($17m, BCR 1.5).
Not assessed · QLDC · 24-27
Town Centre Upgrade – Stage 2 | QLDC
Investigate and implement Arterial Stage 2, Gorge Road to Hay Street ($43m, BCR 0.9).
Not assessed · QLDC · Investigation 24-27; implementation 27-30
Arterial Stage 2 | QLDC
Investigate Stanley Street redevelopment including bus hub stage 2 ($46m incl. $33m property).
Not assessed · QLDC · Further investigation 24-27
Stanley Street Redevelopment | QLDC / ORC / Developer
Re-evaluate Arterial Stage 3 to One Mile Roundabout ($118m, BCR 0.2); no trigger points identified.
Not assessed · QLDC · Further investigation beyond 2030
Arterial Stage 3 | QLDC | Low BCR – no trigger points
Offline PT service improvements including offline PT hubs ($262m, BCR 1.7), triggered once on-road capacity is reached; needs protected corridor and terminal locations.
Not assessed · NZTA · Further investigation beyond 2030 · Relevant to rapid transit
Offline PT Service Improvements, including offline PT hubs | Waka Kotahi/ORC
Revisit the case for offline PT after the 2024-27 NLTP period.
Not assessed · After 24-27 NLTP · Relevant to rapid transit
It is recommended that the case for offline PT is revisited after the 24-27 NLTP period
Revisit the case for offline hubs once the PT/BRT concept of operations has been fully developed.
Not assessed · Relevant to rapid transit
recommended that the case for offline hubs is revisited once the PT/BRT concept of operations
Revisit the case for Arterial Stages 2 and 3 after the 2024-27 NLTP period.
Not assessed · After 24-27 NLTP
we recommend that the case for investment in Stages 2 and 3 is revisited after the 24-27 NLTP period
Business case update for pre-implementation funding and route protection for an offline PT corridor between Frankton and Queenstown Town Centre.
Not assessed · QLDC · Beyond 2030 · Relevant to rapid transit
Offline PT corridor | Business case update for pre-implementation funding, route protection | ORC/QLDC
Set up a dedicated joint project to agree SH6A revocation (Frankton Road/Dublin St to Steamer Wharf) and oversee physical works.
Not assessed · NZTA · As soon as possible
suggested that a dedicated project is set up to form a revocation agreement
Initiate Public Works Act land acquisition for the Frankton hub (golf course reserve land) once the PT Services and Infrastructure DBC confirms the case.
Not assessed · After PT DBC · Relevant to rapid transit
It has not yet been agreed who would purchase the land for the bus hub
Commence negotiations for all required property following approval of the business case.
Not assessed · Following business case approval
recommended that negotiations commence for all required property following the approval
Develop a data improvement plan to fill baseline gaps for benefits monitoring.
Not assessed · NZTA
recommended that a data improvement plan is developed between QLDC, Waka Kotahi and ORC
Deliver NZUP and CIP elements through the Wakatipu Transport Programme Alliance; let tender and secure preferred supplier.
Not assessed · NZTA · Quarter 4 2020
An Alliance approach has been agreed between Waka Kotahi and QLDC for construction
Develop town centre parking requirements and park-and-ride in greater detail, as raised in engagement.
Not assessed · QLDC
These are currently being developed to a greater detail by QLDC
Provide ferry services complementing bus services, detailed in a separate ferry business case.
Not assessed · ORC
Ferry services that complement the bus services... separate ferry business case (ORC)
TN30 (Appendix B5/C12, not reproduced in this volume): Board to approve that off-line PT to SH6A (e.g. mass rapid transit) is parked and reviewed in 2028.
Not assessed · Review in 2028 · Relevant to rapid transit
Study cost
A study cost has been requested under the Official Information Act or LGOIMA. No figure has been received.
Citation
Way to Go partnership, NZTA (Waka Kotahi), QLDC, ORC. Queenstown Business Case (NZ Upgrade Programme Queenstown Transport Detailed Business Case) – main volume, redacted (2020). NZTA Contract 2018235 (cited in EY peer review footnote p.437); no OIA reference number printed.