QTS-050 · Detailed business case · 2020
Queenstown Business Case – Summary Report
Part of: Rapid transit evidence →
The Summary Report (Final, 12 November 2020, Alan Kerr) is the executive summary of the NZUP Queenstown Business Case. It was prepared for the Waka Kotahi, QLDC, ORC and Way to Go partners, who were seeking endorsement of the programme. It sets out the case for change: SH6A capacity was exceeded on 140 days in 2019, and non-car trips must rise from 16% to 40% by 2028 and 60% by 2048. It describes the 'three pillars' preferred programme of targeted infrastructure (NZUP $90m, CIP $85m), BRT-style public transport and travel behaviour change. Table 2 sequences 11 interventions with lead agencies, costs, BCRs and NLTP periods. The final element is 'Offline PT Service Improvements, including offline PT hubs' (Waka Kotahi/ORC, $262m, BCR 1.7, further investigation beyond 2030). The BCR is 2.3 for the first ten years and 1.5 for the full programme. For 2021-24 the activities include a Waka Kotahi travel behaviour change SSBC, an ORC PT services and infrastructure DBC, QLDC activities (about $1.7m plus Crown Infrastructure Partners obligations) and Waka Kotahi preliminary Stanley St/Shotover work (p.21).
What the document says
Context and purpose: This 24-page Summary Report is the first component of the Queenstown Business Case (DBC). It is reproduced as pp.1-24 of the OIA-released main volume, where the author name is redacted. The project partners sought endorsement. Two business cases were to follow in 2021-24: TDM led by Waka Kotahi and PT services and infrastructure led by ORC (p.6). The study area is the Wakatipu Basin: Queenstown Town Centre, Frankton to Queenstown, Frankton and Ladies Mile (p.6). Assurance included a Challenge Team (February 2020), Flow modelling and EY economics peer reviews, partner and AECOM reviews, Arup drawings review, Commute and the Waka Kotahi IQA (pp.6-7).
Case for change: Peak-day population is forecast to grow from about 120,000 (2018) to 200,000 (2048) (p.8). SH6A practical capacity was exceeded on 140 days in 2019. By 2028 Lake Hayes Estate to Queenstown trips may regularly exceed 60 minutes, and private cars make up 84% of SH6A trips (p.9). The non-car share needs to rise from 16% to 40% by 2028 and to 60% by 2048 (p.9). Emissions rise from 178,535t to 227,939t by 2028 under the Do-minimum (p.9). The estimated economic loss without investment is $670m-$1.2 billion over 40 years (p.9).
Options and programme: More than 300 ideas were distilled into nine packages, with public engagement in August 2020 (p.11). The preferred programme comprises committed CIP town centre works, committed NZUP SH6A, Ladies Mile and SH6 works with bus priority and a Frankton hub upgrade, and unfunded items (pp.14-15). The unfunded items are town centre upgrades, Stanley Street hub, arterial stages 2 and 3, a Frankton Road shared path, BRT services with fleet moving to bi-articulated vehicles, ferry services (ORC), future offline PT, TDM, parking management and ITS.
Performance: The BCR is 2.3 for elements recommended over the next ten years and 1.5 for the full programme (p.16). The programme gives a more than 100% increase in SH6A people capacity by 2028 and more than 20% PT travel time improvement. It also yields $143m of amenity WEBs, a 15% emissions reduction by 2048 and safety benefits of $25m-$31m (pp.16-17).
Sequencing and funding: Table 2 (p.19) lists NZUP ($106m, Waka Kotahi) and CIP ($120m, QLDC) as committed. TDM ($1.8m), PT services, on-road PT ($80m plus opex), Stanley/Shotover ($24m), Town Centre Stage 2 ($17m) and Arterial Stage 2 ($43m) are recommended. Stanley Street redevelopment ($46m), Arterial Stage 3 ($118m) and offline PT ($262m) follow later. Cash flows for the next three NLTP periods exclude Arterial Stage 3 and offline PT (p.20). Next-period costs are Waka Kotahi $1,722,821, ORC $1,500,000 and QLDC $1,695,243 plus CIP obligations (p.21).
Commercial and management: An Alliance between Waka Kotahi and QLDC was to secure a supplier in Q4 2020. Property is on the critical path, and one of 37 NZUP consent locations is complex (p.22). Key risks are funding misalignment, property availability, slow decisions, interface misalignment, loss of community support and design changes (p.22).
Mass rapid transit: The report does not use the word 'gondola'. It describes 'Future offline public transport services that provide a further step change in capacity along with additional resilience and experiential benefits', requiring offline hubs in Frankton and Queenstown (p.15). It says a 'Future offline corridor improves resilience of Frankton to Queenstown journey' (p.16) and gives the offline PT line in Table 2 as $262m, BCR 1.7, 'Other activities – for later re-evaluation', beyond 2030 (p.19). Offline PT is excluded from the cash-flow graphs (p.20).
Key figures
- NZUP $90m (SH6A, Ladies Mile, GR2KFB); CIP $50m Arterials Stage 1 + $35m streetscape (p.8)
- Peak day population ~120,000 (2018) to 200,000 (2048) (p.8)
- SH6A practical capacity exceeded 140 days in 2019; car 84% of SH6A trips (p.9)
- Non-car share 16% to 40% by 2028; 60% by 2048 (p.9)
- Emissions 178,535t (2018) to 227,939t (2028) Do-min (p.9)
- Economic loss $670m-$1.2bn over 40 years without investment (p.9)
- BCR 2.3 (first ten years); 1.5 (full programme) (pp.16, 23)
- Table 2: NZUP $106m; CIP $120m; TDM $1.8m; On-road PT $80m + opex; Stanley/Shotover $24m; TC Stage 2 $17m; Arterial 2 $43m; Stanley St redevelopment $46m; Arterial 3 $118m; Offline PT $262m BCR 1.7 (p.19)
- Opex ramps from $8m to $24m a year over next three periods (p.21)
- Next NLTP: Waka Kotahi $1,722,821; ORC $1,500,000; QLDC $1,695,243 + CIP (p.21)
Rapid transit
Mass rapid transit means light rail, gondola/cable car, bus rapid transit and similar dedicated rapid-transit technologies. It does not include ordinary bus services or ferries.
Substantive. Discusses, assesses, recommends or programmes mass rapid transit.
Lists offline PT ($262m, BCR 1.7 (Economic Case gives 1.6), Waka Kotahi/ORC) as a later re-evaluation activity beyond 2030; not funded
The summary does not name a mass rapid transit technology. Among unfunded PT services it lists 'Future offline public transport services that provide a further step change in capacity along with additional resilience and experiential benefits. This will require the development of offline public transport hubs in both Frankton and Queenstown' (p.15). Under the resilience objective it states that a 'Future offline corridor improves resilience of Frankton to Queenstown journey' (p.16). It adds that 'Longer term, the provision of an offline public transport link between Frankton and Queenstown will deliver an alternative corridor that provides full separation from the road network' (p.17). Table 2 records 'Offline PT Service Improvements, including offline PT hubs' with lead Waka Kotahi/ORC and dependency 'Future proofed/protected corridor and terminal locations'. Its trigger is 'Demand trigger – once on road capacity is reached. Anticipated beyond 2030'. It shows BCR 1.7, $262m, 'Other activities – for later re-evaluation' and 'Further investigation beyond 2030' (p.19). The cash-flow graphs exclude 'off line PT' (p.20).
"Future offline public transport services that provide a further step change in capacity along with additional resilience and experiential benefits. This will require the development of offline public transport hubs in both Frankton and Queenstown." (p.15) | "Longer term, the provision of an offline public transport link between Frankton and Queenstown will deliver an alternative corridor that provides full separation from the road network." (p.17) | "Demand trigger – once on road capacity is reached. Anticipated beyond 2030" (p.19)
Files
- Open Council meeting-pack copy (PDF, 2.1 MB) Opens in a new tab.
Council meeting-pack copy
- Open Standalone copy (PDF, 3.0 MB) Opens in a new tab.
Standalone copy
Public copies
Publisher’s own file.
Actions recorded
Deliver SH6A, SH6 Grant Road to Kawarau Falls Bridge and Ladies Mile improvements (NZUP); committed.
Not assessed · NZTA · 21-24
SH6A Improvements, GR2KFB Improvements and Ladies Mile Improvements | Waka Kotahi
Deliver Arterials Stage 1 and Town Centre Upgrade Stage 1 (CIP); committed.
Not assessed · QLDC · 21-24
Arterials – Stage 1, Town Centre Upgrade – Stage 1 | QLDC
Travel demand management package ($1.8m, BCR 3.5).
Not assessed · NZTA · Ongoing over multiple periods
Travel Demand Management package | QLDC / ORC / Waka Kotahi
Lead a TDM business case in the 2021-24 NLTP period.
Not assessed · NZTA · 2021-24
the TDM business case will be led by Waka Kotahi
Lead a Public Transport Services and Infrastructure business case ($1.5m) in the 2021-24 NLTP period.
Not assessed · ORC · 2021-24
the PT business case will be led by the Otago Regional Council (ORC)
Travel Behaviour Change SSBC with preliminary work on Stanley and Shotover Street improvements ($1,722,821).
Not assessed · NZTA · Next NLTP period
Waka Kotahi | Travel Behaviour Change SSBC
CIP obligations plus small-scale Old Frankton changes, preliminary wayfinding and travel behaviour change ($1,695,243).
Not assessed · QLDC · Next NLTP period
QLDC | CIP obligations plus small scale changes in Old Frankton
PT services improvements within existing contract (opex $8m to $11m a year).
Not assessed · ORC · 21-24 investigation; staged from 24-27
PT Services Improvements | ORC
Show all 17 actions
On-road PT service improvements incl. Frankton hub ($80m plus opex rising to $24m a year by 2027).
Not assessed · ORC · Staged from 27-30
On Road PT Service Improvements | ORC
Stanley and Shotover Street improvements incl. Stanley Street bus hub stage 1 ($24m).
Not assessed · NZTA · 24-27
Stanley Street and Shotover Street Improvements | Waka Kotahi
Town Centre Upgrade Stage 2 ($17m).
Not assessed · QLDC · 24-27
Town Centre Upgrade – Stage 2 | QLDC
Arterial Stage 2 ($43m excl. Memorial Hall rebuild).
Not assessed · QLDC · Investigation 24-27; implementation 27-30
Arterial Stage 2 | QLDC
Stanley Street redevelopment incl. bus hub stage 2 ($46m incl. $33m property).
Not assessed · QLDC · Further investigation 24-27
Stanley Street Redevelopment | QLDC / ORC / Developer
Arterial Stage 3 ($118m, BCR 0.2) for later re-evaluation.
Not assessed · QLDC · Further investigation beyond 2030
Arterial Stage 3 | QLDC
Offline PT service improvements incl. offline PT hubs ($262m, BCR 1.7); demand trigger once on-road capacity reached; requires protected corridor and terminals.
Not assessed · NZTA · Further investigation beyond 2030 · Relevant to rapid transit
Offline PT Service Improvements, including offline PT hubs | Waka Kotahi/ORC
Develop town centre parking requirements and park-and-ride in greater detail.
Not assessed · QLDC
These are currently being developed to a greater detail by QLDC
Let Alliance tender for NZUP/CIP construction and secure preferred supplier.
Not assessed · NZTA · Quarter 4 2020
An Alliance approach has been agreed between Waka Kotahi and QLDC
Study cost
Costed with the parent document.
Citation
Way to Go partnership, NZTA (Waka Kotahi), QLDC, ORC. Queenstown Business Case – Summary Report (2020).