Wakatipu Basin Future Public Transport Demand Analysis – Technical Note 3b – Future Scenarios Update (Sept 2020)

Context and purpose: Technical Note 3b (Final, Rev 2, 17 November 2020; WSP New Zealand) reports the methodology and results of future scenario modelling for the Queenstown Town Centre, Frankton to Queenstown, and Frankton Transport Business Case, including the outputs used in its economic evaluation and later sensitivity tests (p.1). It follows Technical Note 3 (model build) and Technical Note 3a (shortlist option testing) (p.1).

Method: Future demand comes from the Tracks model maintained by Abley Transportation Consultants on behalf of QLDC and Waka Kotahi, using 2028 and 2048 scenarios (pp.1-2). Two 2048 sensitivity sets were added: the preferred Spatial Plan growth distribution (more development near Jacks Point, 2,580 fewer jobs in the Queenstown urban area) and a post-COVID-19 set with reduced tourist activity (p.2). Car trips in the AM peak grow from 14,851 (2018) to 22,821 (2028) and 30,857 (2048) in the business case demand set (p.3). The spreadsheet model calculates mode share for each origin-destination pair and iterates with link travel times to convergence (p.3). Key assumptions include bus fare $2 and ferry $4.90, a mode penalty of $5 for bus and $7 for ferry, 40-seat buses (Bus Max services double-decker or articulated, capacity 100), airport passengers of 3.2m (2028) and 5.1m (2048), and Town Centre parking costs rising from $3.66 (2018 AM peak) to $13.78 (2028) and $20.66 (2048) (p.5). No active mode demand, peak spreading or TDM is modelled (pp.5-6). Park and ride sites are assumed at SH6/Howards Drive and SH6/Boyd Road (p.6). The note states the parking cost increase is 'a major driver in the increased PT model share' for Town Centre trips (p.6).

Scenarios: With the latest demand sets only Do Minimum and the NZUP scenario (closest to the earlier Bus Max option) were tested (p.3). NZUP uses a 'one-seat-ride' bus network, an improved Kelvin Heights-Town Centre bus-ferry link, and 'Virtual Priority' for buses on SH6A, with physical priority through Frankton Flats and a westbound Ladies Mile bus lane and bus gate (pp.3-4). Earlier option assessment had included Bus Min, Bus Max, Trackless Tram, Mass rapid transit MRT and ferry option; Bus Max was preferred (p.4).

Results: On SH6A in 2028, NZUP gives volume/capacity of 82-86% while Do Minimum exceeds capacity (p.7). For example, in the 2028 AM peak westbound the business case NZUP scenario carries 23% by bus and 13% by park and ride, against 15% by bus under Do Minimum (p.8). By 2048 demand 'is expected to reach close to, or exceed, capacity' on SH6A under all scenarios (p.7). PT mode share at the Shotover Bridge peaks at around 20% compared with around 45% on SH6A at 2028, attributed to dispersed Frankton land use, transfers and lack of Frankton parking control (p.10); at Kawarau Falls Bridge it peaks at around 25% (p.13). Spatial Plan and COVID-19 sensitivity sets had 'limited impact on projected public transport patronage' (p.16). At 75% of the assumed parking cost, the degree of saturation on Frankton Road approaches 100% (p.16).

Conclusions: NZUP retains a high degree of mode shift over Do Minimum, particularly at 2048; 'sticks' such as parking control 'appear to be critical'; the land use and first/last mile access assumed on Ladies Mile does not sufficiently support PT; and southern housing areas should be designed with PT as a priority (p.16). Appendices (pp.17-50) give the NZUP PT network, hub passenger movements and origin-destination matrices by mode, including MRT columns that are zero throughout.

Mass rapid transit: The note records that 'An additional scenario, Gondola MRT, was tested under the previous round of demand sets but was omitted for implementability reasons before this update' (p.3). It lists Mass rapid transit MRT, ferry option and Trackless Tram among previously tested High Capacity Public Transport scenarios, says the Trackless Tram 'achieved the highest mode shift' but feasibility issues led to Bus Max being preferred, and that only Bus Max (NZUP) was tested with updated demand (p.4). It gives no mass rapid transit results and does not explain the implementability reasons. Model output tables carry an MRT mode row with zero trips (pp.8-15, 21-50).