QTS-049 · Business case chapter or appendix · 2020
Appendix F Commercial Case - F1 Risk Register (Queenstown Business Case Risk Management Plan) and F2 Property Strategy
Appendix F of the NZUP Queenstown Transport Business Case holds the Commercial Case supporting material. F1 is the business case Risk Management Plan (Final, 3/11 November 2020) for NZTA (Waka Kotahi) Contract 2018235, valued at $4.4M (Sep 2020). It describes an AS/NZS ISO 31000 process using Waka Kotahi standard Z/44 (general approach), with a High risk tolerance threshold. It records risk workshops in November 2018, at the February 2020 Challenge workshop and on 30 October 2020. Three registers follow: project (contract) risks, delivery risks for the next stages, and closed risks. The delivery register rates five risks Critical: slow or poor external decision making; funding not aligning with recommendations; misalignment between Waka Kotahi, QLDC and ORC across interdependent projects (almost certain, severe); loss of community support; and parking measures not strong enough to push mode shift. Named risk owners are Shaun Hubbard (W2G), Tony Sizemore (NZTA) and Tony Pickard (QLDC). Workshop notes record that the strategic model only stabilised with a four-laned SH6A and 3,000 town centre parks. F2 Property Strategy is a divider page only; its content is not in this file.
What the document says
Context: F1 is the Risk Management Plan for the Queenstown Business Case (F2Q SSBC and QTC DBC) under NZTA Contract 2018235. The contract value is '$4.4M - Sep 2020', with Tony Sizemore as NZTA Lead and the supplier lead redacted (p.16). The plan was 'originally developed some period into the project's life' and updated at final delivery (p.7). Revision initials are 'AN' (prepared) and 'AK' (reviewed and approved) (p.4).
Method: AS/NZS ISO 31000:2018 is applied with Waka Kotahi standard Z/44 'General' approach. The plan explains why it did not use the 'Advanced' approach normally expected above $50m: no single element exceeds $50m, and 'PT operations... will require their own DBC' (p.10). The risk tolerance threshold is High; lower risks are 'live-parked' (pp.10-11). Workshops were held on 16 November 2018, as part of the Challenge workshop (25 February 2020), and informally on 30 October 2020 (p.11). No risk-adjusted programme is provided at closeout (p.12). The consequence criteria add a stakeholder measure for mode shift and PT delivery, at the Challenge team's suggestion (pp.13, 15).
Project register (pp.16-17): Critical risks are QBCS 009b, that external decision making is poor or slow (W2G, Shaun Hubbard), and QBCS 007, that the programme is extremely tight (Stantec, owner redacted). By September 2020, QBCS 007 had 'forced modified delivery schedule, incomplete reporting' (p.17).
Delivery register (pp.20-23): Critical risks are:
- QBCS 009b, decision making (W2G, Shaun Hubbard).
- QBCS 010, funding not aligning with recommendations; likely/severe; QLDC, NZTA and ORC; Shaun Hubbard. The note records 'differences between known available funding and estimated project costs'.
- QBCS 023, misalignment between Waka Kotahi, QLDC and ORC; almost certain/severe; W2G Board; Shaun Hubbard.
- QBCS 024, loss of community support; likely/severe; W2G Communications; Shaun Hubbard.
- QBCS 030, parking not a strong enough 'push' factor; likely/severe; QLDC; Tony Pickard. The note records 'no parking implementation plan developed' and disagreement on who is responsible.
High risks cover work programmes not working together, spatial plan inconsistency, property availability (NZTA, Tony Sizemore), interface projects, detailed design changes and staff turnover (pp.20-21). Treatments are listed with residual ratings (pp.22-23).
Closed risks (pp.25-28) include QBCS 021, 'That PT elements do not get implemented because team unable to talk with ORC' (Critical; ORC). Appendix D notes from the 16 November 2018 workshop record 'Risk - no viable long term economic solutions' and 'Noted that to stabilise Strategic Model that had to 4 Lane SH6A and 3000 parks in town centre to get it to stabilise' (p.30). January 2019 notes record that the 'Relationship between QLDC and ORC is a bit testy' (p.31). Appendix E is the February 2020 Challenge Team risk presentation (pp.32-39).
F2 Property Strategy (p.40): divider only.
Mass rapid transit: None. The risk registers do not mention MRT, offline PT or mass rapid transit. The Challenge-team risk 'There is no long term viable, economic solutions' (Rare/Extreme, High) is the nearest long-term reference (p.37).
Key figures
- Contract NZTA 2018235 value $4.4M (Sep 2020) (p.16)
- Delivery register: 5 Critical risks (QBCS 009b, 010, 023, 024, 030) (p.20)
- QBCS 023 agency misalignment rated Almost certain / Severe = Critical (p.20)
- Strategic model stabilised only with 4-laned SH6A and 3,000 town centre parks (workshop notes, p.30)
- Risk tolerance threshold: High and above (p.10)
Files
- Open Main document (PDF, 2.3 MB) Opens in a new tab.
Main document
Actions recorded
Maintain contact with appropriate levels in NZTA, ORC and QLDC and reinforce the need for timely implementation decisions (risk QBCS 009b)
Not assessed · Way to Go · Next and subsequent stages
Maintain contact with appropriate levels in NZTA, ORC and QLDC. Reinforcement of requirement for timely decisions.
Update cases to realistic cost/budget profiles; parties to signal funding priorities as early as possible (QBCS 010)
Not assessed · NZTA · As early as possible
Parties to signal funding priorities as early as possible
Secure consistent decisions across design, operations, approvals, funding, programme and implementation through frequent interaction between agencies (QBCS 023)
Not assessed · Way to Go · Ongoing
Consistent decisions are required across design, operations, approvals, funding, programme and implementation
Continue a comprehensive engagement strategy after business case completion to retain community support (QBCS 024)
Not assessed · Way to Go · After business case completion
Comprehensive engagement strategy on-going after business case completion
W2G to seek Board direction to prompt QLDC to develop a parking implementation plan that supports the business case (QBCS 030)
Not assessed · Way to Go
Recommended W2G seek Board direction to prompt QLDC to develop implementation plan
Clarify and keep connected the governance and management structures of interdependent work programmes (QBCS 028)
Not assessed · Way to Go · Over the life of the project
W2G to emphasis understanding the connected projects management and governance structure
Run sensitivity tests on spatial plan options in pre-implementation to test consistency of land use assumptions (QBCS 029)
Not assessed · Way to Go · Pre-implementation
Pre-implementation work could do further sensitivity tests on SP options
Engage owners of properties required for the preferred option (QBCS 015)
Not assessed · NZTA
Engage property owners.
Show all 13 actions
Maintain observation of interface projects (Arterial stages, Manawa) with strong integrated governance and clear roles (QBCS 022)
Not assessed · Way to Go · Ongoing
W2G maintain observation on interface projects
Appoint an informed backup team member in each organisation to reduce staff-turnover risk (QBCS 027)
Not assessed · NZTA · Ongoing
Recommend a second (backup) team member who is appropriately informed and current.
Use sensitivity tests in subsequent business case work to address COVID-19 growth uncertainty (QBCS 031)
Not assessed · Way to Go · Subsequent business case work
Sensitivity tests, especially as part of subsequent business case work
Develop new risk registers for each programme element taken forward, with their own budgets and approvals
Not assessed · As elements progress
new risk registers will need to be developed for each element of the programme that is taken forward
Pass parking pricing mechanism development to follow-up work under the Parking Strategy (QBCS 019)
Not assessed · Stantec · Next stages
Pass further development to follow up work.
Study cost
A study cost has been requested under the Official Information Act or LGOIMA. No figure has been received.
Citation
NZTA (Waka Kotahi). Appendix F Commercial Case - F1 Risk Register (Queenstown Business Case Risk Management Plan) and F2 Property Strategy (2020). NZTA Contract 2018235.