NZUP Queenstown Package (NZUP Governance Group, 24 November 2023) [DRAFT]

Context: Draft presentation to the NZUP Governance Group on 24 November 2023, presented by Richard Osborne (Project Sponsor) and Brad Cabell (Programme Director) (p1). Purpose: update on costs and seek support for additional funding to complete the SH6/6A (BP) intersection, adjacent bus hub and Howards Drive roundabout (p2). In March 2023 the Group endorsed instructing the Alliance to progress design and TOC reconciliation for this reduced package (p2).

Update (pp3-4): Prioritisation re-tested with QLDC and ORC reconfirmed the reduced package. The Alliance-BondCM difference for the reduced scope is $10.1M, and the final cost will significantly exceed the $130M budget regardless. QLDC has significant fiscal challenges and cannot afford its component of NZUP (to be considered on 6 November 2023). The Waka Kotahi Board supported progressing the reduced scope at the increased cost. RMA decisions are progressing. Non-designation-dependent works at the BP intersection could start in early 2024, and value engineering has been done.

Recommendations (p5): note the $130M baseline against an initial Alliance estimate of about $420M; note the reprioritisation with QLDC and ORC; note the reduced scope estimate of $230M; endorse the reduced scope at $230M; note QLDC cannot fund its three waters component; note staff recommend that the Queenstown Business Case programme be reconfirmed given changed growth forecasts in the Spatial Plan, affordability concerns and the need to accelerate other policy levers such as road pricing.

Rationale and appendix (pp6-12): SH6/SH6A is the cornerstone of public transport improvements; the design has been peer reviewed. Peak population is forecast to double by 2051. Required non-car mode shares for the AM peak are shown for SH6A, Shotover Bridge and Kawarau Falls Bridge (e.g. 40% on SH6A by 2039 and 47% by 2053, as extracted) (p9). The partners' joint MCA ranks the BP intersection and bus hub first and Howards Drive second (p11). Queenstown cost factors include no surfacing from 1 May to 31 August, 36,000 vpd with no detour, no long night works and high FIFO costs (p12).

Options (pp13-14): (1) full scope about $420m, needing $270m-$300m extra, unlikely to be funded; (2) reduced scope, $100m-$120m shortfall; (3) disband the Alliance and tender traditionally, about $10 million in exit costs; (4) stop and return later, possibly relooking at the Queenstown Business Case; (5) alternative funding such as BOOT (judged unlikely to be feasible) or road pricing (many years away).

Mass rapid transit: The deck says nothing about mass rapid transit. It recommends reconfirming the Queenstown Business Case programme and accelerating road pricing (p5), and judges BOOT-type concession funding unlikely to be feasible for this package (p14).