Emissions Reduction Roadmap: Pathway to Science Based Targets – scenarios for Queenstown Lakes District

Context and purpose: The report describes an emissions reduction roadmap, with associated costs, to inform QLDC about pathways to net zero emissions by 2050 across the district and the feasibility of Science Based Targets for 1.5°C and well-below-2°C (p.9). QLDC adopted a Climate Action Plan (CAP) in March 2020, one priority action of which was this roadmap with a separate Sequestration Study (p.12). QLDC engaged Sapere to undertake both (p.12). Page references are PDF pages; printed page numbers are 8 lower.

Baseline: Using the Tonkin & Taylor GHG inventory for 2019, gross district emissions were 659,274 tCO2e, of which road transport was 241,755 tCO2e (36.7%), agriculture 171,923 (26.1%), Victoria Flats landfill 88,011 (13.3%), domestic transboundary aviation 64,670 (9.8%), electricity 45,822 (7.0%) and LPG 30,200 (4.6%) (p.14).

Method: Three scenarios (Business as Usual, Modest Change, High Change) are combined with three population projections to give nine pathways (pp.18-19). Business as Usual scales 2019 per-capita emissions with population (p.22). Marginal abatement costs (MACs), at a 6% discount rate, inform technology start dates and uptake (p.57).

Road transport: Options modelled include public transport and ride sharing on SH6A between Frankton and Queenstown, conversion of light vehicles to battery electric, heavy vehicle efficiency, telemetrics, trucking collaboration, and heavy vehicle conversion to battery electric, biodiesel (G2) and hydrogen (p.26). The mode shift input is 60% (Modest) or 80% (High) mode shift by 2050 for journeys on SH6A between Frankton and Queenstown, the Modest figure 'based on the MoT base case used in the Abley transport model' (p.28). The report says mode shift 'will provide modest emissions savings for the district', while light passenger and commercial vehicles produce about 79% of road transport emissions, so electrification gives the greatest savings (p.28). A behaviour change placeholder is set at 0% in both pathways (p.29). Full light-vehicle electrification would need around 280 GWh/year, compared with Queenstown's 2019 use of 261 GWh, and could add 70 MW to peak demand (p.29). No MAC was estimated for mode shift (p.58).

Results: Modest Change gives 44% savings by 2050 against Business as Usual, led by road transport, landfill, aviation, agriculture and LPG (p.51). High Change gives much deeper reductions, including a 2040 step from an assumed pyrolysis plant (p.52). High Change 'will only just achieve' the combined well-below-2°C Science Based Target and biogenic methane target; the 1.5°C combined target 'will not be achieved by either pathway' (p.54). The CAP transport outcome budget falls from 307,800 tCO2e in 2020 to 276,600 (Modest) or 79,700 (High) in 2050 (p.56). About 233 ktCO2e/year would need to be sequestered in 2050 under High Change; plantings of around 17,320 ha (under 2% of the district) could sequester over 400 ktCO2e/year, with significant landscape and land ownership challenges (pp.10-11, 69).

Costs: MfE estimates of MACs for electrifying light commercial and light passenger vehicles are about -$300/tCO2e and -$170/tCO2e over 2020-2030 (p.59). Heavy truck electrification is expected to become cost-effective within five years; biodiesel and hydrogen keep positive abatement costs but are described as necessary (p.66). Switching from LPG is cost-effective for commercial and new builds (p.66).

Recommendations: The authors hope QLDC 'will be bold and ambitious, aiming for the High Change pathway', which will need regulatory, policy and community engagement levers (p.70). Subsector next steps include full modelling of the district transport network, engagement with airlines and Queenstown Airport, agricultural trials, engagement with Aurora and LPG suppliers, better wastewater emission factors, investigation of a pyrolysis plant, and a verified QLDC carbon inventory (pp.70-71).

Mass rapid transit: The report says nothing about mass rapid transit or offline public transport. It assumes a 60-80% mode shift to public transport and active travel on SH6A between Frankton and Queenstown by 2050 (p.28) but does not identify the transport infrastructure or services needed to achieve it.