QTS-011 · Programme business case · 2017Draft
Queenstown Town Centre Masterplan Programme Business Case
Part of: Rapid transit evidence →
Draft programme business case (Rev 2.5, November 2017) prepared by Rationale Limited for Queenstown Lakes District Council (QLDC). It brings together the town centre arterials, parking and public and passenger transport facilities indicative business cases, the spatial framework, public realm improvements and a Community Heart into one integrated Queenstown Town Centre Masterplan investment story to 2050. The strategic case cites SH6A between Frankton and the town centre operating at 88% of its 28,500 vehicles/day capacity (expected 100% by 2026), active and public transport below 13% of inbound travel, and parking-search traffic causing 30% of town centre congestion. Seven programmes were assessed; Programme 6 (new arterials, Stanley Street PT hub, appropriate parking supply and town centre improvements) is preferred. The programme costs about $385 million over ten years, with a BCR of 1.7, although the incremental analysis favours Programme 3 and an NZTA reviewer raised concerns about patronage assumptions. QLDC's borrowing capacity is a binding constraint, so PPPs, Crown funding and deferral are proposed. An alliance of QLDC, NZTA and ORC is proposed, and detailed business cases are to follow in 2018. The programme includes 'Preservation of mass transit corridor options', and its implementation schedule shows mass rapid transit planning from 2028 and mass rapid transit construction completing in 2037.
What the document says
Context and purpose. This draft Programme Business Case (PBC), Rev 2.5 (November 2017), was prepared by Rationale Limited for Queenstown Lakes District Council (QLDC). It integrates the town centre arterial routes, parking, and public and passenger transport facilities business cases (Appendices 11-13), a spatial framework, public realm improvements and a Community Heart (p.7). It seeks approval to take the programme and project business cases into detailed planning (p.13). Commercial, financial and management elements are to be agreed between QLDC, NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), Otago Regional Council (ORC) and central government (p.7).
Case for change. Evidence cited includes SH6A between Frankton and the town centre at 88% of its 28,500 vehicles/day theoretical capacity, expected to reach 100% by 2026; active and public transport accounting for less than 13% of inbound travel and under 2% of people using the bus to work; town centre parking at capacity, with 30% of congestion from parking search; and rapid population and visitor growth (p.9). Investment objectives include town centre spend (2017 baseline $400 million) and visitor numbers (18,000/day) (p.49).
Options. Seven programmes, from status quo to 'most ambitious', were built from the project business case options (Table 15, p.102) and assessed by MCA. Programme 7 (with Community Heart) rated highest but lacked detail, so Programme 6 was preferred while preserving land for the Community Heart (p.103). Programme 6 comprises new arterials from Melbourne Street to One Mile roundabout, fringe parking buildings and expanded paid parking, park and ride, a 6-8 bay Stanley Street PT hub, wharf facilities for waterborne transport, preservation of mass transit corridor options, public realm upgrades, technology, active travel and marketing (pp.10, 110). The case for arterial Stage 3 rests largely on wider economic benefits of removing traffic from Shotover Street; its revised option 3B estimate is $47.7 million, about $50 million lower than before (pp.110-114).
Economic case. Abley's EEM-based analysis gives the preferred programme a BCR of 1.7 (sensitivity range 1.2-2.2) (pp.132-133). The incremental analysis shows Programme 3 (arterial Stages 1 and 2) as preferred because increments to Programmes 4 and 6 fall below 1; the document argues Programme 6 benefits are conservative (p.132). Abley attributes 96% of road user benefits to Stages 1 and 2 (p.139). NZTA reviewer Graeme Bellis noted concerns about predicted PT patronage and the elasticity method, and the need for better models (pp.133-134). For 2045 the modelling estimates Frankton Road peak-hour inbound PT of 300 by bus/water taxi plus 490 by Mass Rapid Transit (p.141). The programme is assessed as 'High' and potentially 'Very High' results alignment (pp.136-138).
Implementation. Figure 66 (p.144) shows Stanley Street Interchange by 2023, 5-10 minute bus frequency on Frankton Road, parking restrictions from 2018, park and ride construction 2018-2026, scheduled ferries from 2024 and a lake-wide ferry network from 2030, arterial construction to 2023, and 'Gondola planning' 2028-2034 then 'Gondola construction' to 2037. The construction sequencing schedule dated 13 October 2017 sets parking buildings, arterial designation and stages, ferry wharves, the PT interchange (2022/23), public realm streets and the Community Heart across 2018/19-2027/28 (p.145).
Financial and management cases. The programme is about $384.7 million over ten years: PPP $46.2m, QLDC-only $36.8m, QLDC 49%/NZTA FAR 51% $224.2m (including arterials $139.7m and PT hubs $23.9m), and QLDC 70%/FAR 30% $77.5m (p.12). QLDC's draft LTP capital programme would require additional borrowing of around $700 million (stated as $750 million on p.11) against a maximum capacity of around $330 million; recommended steps are to reduce or defer, seek bulk Crown funding and use PPPs (p.150). Proposed funding partners are set out by project (p.152). A QLDC-NZTA-ORC alliance with a steering group is proposed (pp.147, 156); consultation is scheduled for March 2018 and DBCs for January-October 2018 (pp.158-160).
Mass rapid transit: The PBC includes 'Preservation of mass transit corridor options to enable future growth' as a programme component (p.10) and states 'a mass rapid transit solution may be required from around 2040' (p.81). Its implementation schedule shows planning from 2028-2034 and construction to 2037 (p.144), and the 2035+ PT strategy map lists 'Gondola completed' with a 'Gondola / Light Rail' route between the town centre PT hub and Frankton (p.123). The hub is to allow for 'a potential gondola link' (p.97). Consents and purchases for 'the mass transit corridor' are to be proactively managed (p.148), and MRT is listed as a new asset type for asset management (p.135). MRT is not costed in Table 1, and no mode, route or responsible agency is confirmed.
Key figures
- Programme cost $384,702,000 over 10 years (p.12)
- Programme BCR 1.7; sensitivity 1.2-2.2 (pp.132-133)
- Incremental BCR analysis favours Programme 3 (p.132)
- SH6A at 88% of 28,500 vpd capacity, 100% by 2026 (p.9)
- Active and PT less than 13% of inbound travel; under 2% bus to work (p.9)
- Town centre arterials $139,684,000 (p.12)
- Arterial Stage 3 revised estimate $47.7m, about $50m lower (p.114)
- 96% of road user benefits from arterial Stages 1 and 2 (p.139)
- 2045 Frankton Rd peak hour: 300 by bus/water taxi plus 490 by Mass Rapid Transit (p.141)
- QLDC additional borrowing need ~$700m vs capacity ~$330m (p.150; $750m on p.11)
- Target PT mode share 2035+: 20% peak, 10% interpeak (p.123)
- Gondola planning 2028-2034; construction to 2037 (p.144)
Rapid transit
Mass rapid transit means light rail, gondola/cable car, bus rapid transit and similar dedicated rapid-transit technologies. It does not include ordinary bus services or ferries.
Substantive. Discusses, assesses, recommends or programmes mass rapid transit.
Includes preserving a mass rapid transit corridor; schedule shows planning from 2028-2034 and construction by 2037; not costed.
MRT is part of the programme narrative but is not costed or assessed. The executive summary lists 'Preservation of mass transit corridor options to enable future growth' among programme deliverables (p.10). Citing Beca's demand graphic, it states 'a mass rapid transit solution may be required from around 2040' (p.81). The implementation schedule (Figure 66) shows 'Gondola planning' from 2028 to 2034 and 'Gondola construction' completing in 2037 (p.144). The 2035+ public and passenger transport strategy map lists 'c. Gondola completed' and shows a 'Gondola / Light Rail' line between the town centre PT hub and Frankton/the airport, alongside a target PT mode share of 20% peak (p.123). The PT project is described as future-proofing 'a potential gondola link' (p.97). The modelling assumes 490 peak-hour passengers on Frankton Road by Mass Rapid Transit in 2045 (p.141). The property strategy says consents and purchases for 'the mass transit corridor' will be 'proactively managed' (p.148), and asset management must prepare for 'a mass rapid transit solution' (p.135). The risk register includes 'Include PT benefits (ie. gondola landing) within MCA for Stage 2 Option 4.1' (p.172).
"Preservation of mass transit corridor options to enable future growth." (p.10) | "The graphic below demonstrates this demand and highlights that a mass rapid transit solution may be required from around 2040." (p.81) | "Frankton Rd - 300 passengers by bus/water taxi (up to 7-8 buses plus water taxi) and 490 passengers by Mass Rapid Transit." (p.141) | "Where consents and purchases are required, such as for the arterial upgrade and the mass transit corridor, this will be proactively managed through advice from the partners planning, commercial and legal advisers." (p.148) | "c. Gondola completed" (p.123) | "A dedicated public transport corridor, allowing flexibility to future proof public transport facilities. For example: easy access to the lake for potential water-based transport or a potential gondola link." (p.97)
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Actions recorded
Designate the new town centre arterial route (Melbourne Street to One Mile roundabout).
Not assessed · QLDC · 2018/19 in schedule; designation process July 2018 to June 2020
Arterial Route Designation 2018/19; Completion of the arterial designation processes from July 2018 to June 2020
Acquire land for the town centre arterials.
Not assessed · QLDC · 2019/20
Land Acquisition 2019/20
Construct arterial Stage 1 (Melbourne Street to Henry Street), commencing construction by July 2020.
Not assessed · NZTA · 2020/21-2021/22
Stage 1: Melbourne St to Henry St; Commence arterial construction by July 2020
Construct arterial Stage 2 (Henry Street to Man Street).
Not assessed · NZTA · 2021/22-2022/23
Stage 2: Henry St to Man St
Construct arterial Stage 3 (Man Street and Thompson Street to One Mile), using revised option 3B (estimate $47.7m), and progress its design to better capture benefits.
Not assessed · NZTA · 2022/23-2023/24
Stage 3: Man St and Thompson St (to One Mile)
Build the Boundary Street parking building, potentially designed, built and operated by a private development partner.
Not assessed · 2018/19-2019/20
Parking Building (Boundary St)
Build the Ballarat Street/Project Connect parking building, potentially via a private development partner.
Not assessed · 2020/21
Parking Building (Ballarat St/Project Connect)
Deliver parking interventions and technology (Phase 1 and Phase 2), including smart parking management, apps and ITS signage.
Not assessed · QLDC · Phase 1 2018/19-2019/20; Phase 2 2020/21-2023/24
Parking Interventions/Technology (Phase 1)... (Phase 2)
Show all 38 actions
Introduce parking restrictions in two stages and expand the town centre paid parking area.
Not assessed · Stage I 2018; Stage II about 2021-2025
Parking restrictions (I) 2018... Parking restrictions (II)
Construct park and ride facilities in stages; park and ride may be eligible for NZTA investment at 51% FAR.
Not assessed · NZTA · 2018-2026 (milestones 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026)
Park and Ride construction
Build a new 6-8 bay public transport hub (Stanley Street Interchange), with NZTA contribution assumed at 51% FAR and possible private commercial edges.
Not assessed · NZTA · 2022/23 (2023 milestone)
Stanley St Interchange 2022/23
Increase bus frequency, reaching 5-10 minute frequency on Frankton Road.
Not assessed · From 2017; 5-10 minute frequency after 2023
Increasing frequency... 5-10 minute frequency Frankton Rd
Develop public ferry wharves and pontoons (Queenstown Town Centre, Gardens and Kelvin Heights by 2024; all lake wharf pontoons by 2027).
Not assessed · NZTA · 2018/19 and 2021/22-2024/25; pontoons 2024 and 2027
Public Ferry Wharves; QTC / Gardens / KH Wharf Pontoons 2024; All Lake Wharf Pontoons 2027
Grow the water taxi fleet and introduce scheduled ferry services (QTC/Gardens/Kelvin Heights/Kelvin Park from 2024; lake-wide scheduled ferry network from 2030).
Not assessed · 2024; 2030
Scheduled Ferry QTC / Gardens / Kelvin Heights / Kelvin Park... Scheduled Ferry Network (Lake)
Preserve mass transit corridor options to enable future growth.
Not assessed · Relevant to rapid transit
Preservation of mass transit corridor options to enable future growth.
Plan mass rapid transit (shown on the 2035+ map as a 'gondola / light rail' route between the town centre PT hub and Frankton).
Not assessed · 2028-2034 · Relevant to rapid transit
Gondola planning 2028... 2034
Construct mass rapid transit, shown as completed in the 2035+ public and passenger transport strategy.
Not assessed · 2034-2037 · Relevant to rapid transit
Gondola construction... 2037
Proactively manage consents and property purchases required for the mass transit corridor through the partners' planning, commercial and legal advisers.
Not assessed · NZTA · Relevant to rapid transit
Where consents and purchases are required, such as for the arterial upgrade and the mass transit corridor
Deliver the sequenced public realm upgrades (Upper Beach Street, Rees Street and the Mall first, through to Earl Street and Marine Parade), with cost shared QLDC/NZTA 49/51 or 70/30.
Not assessed · NZTA · 2018/19-2027/28
Public Realm Upgrades... 2018/19... 2027/28
Prioritise the Gardens to Gondola axis, Beach Street axis to PT hub and cycle trails if needed for affordability, delivering remaining streets and open spaces from 2028/29.
Not assessed · QLDC · Balance from 2028/29
Prioritising the Gardens to Gondola axis, Beach St axis to PT Hub and cycle trails
Develop the Community Heart (Memorial Hall replacement and related facilities), with a detailed business case to inform the Programme 7 option.
Not assessed · QLDC · 2020/21
Community Heart (Memorial Hall replacement etc)
Deliver mobility as a service, travel management and Queenstown workplace travel plans (Table 1 costs $0.26m, $8.9m and $0.5m).
Not assessed · NZTA · 10-year programme
Mobility as a Service $260,000... Queenstown Workplace Travel Plans $507,000
Deliver the Wakatipu Active Travel Network and improved town centre walking and cycling routes and facilities ($22.8m).
Not assessed · NZTA · 10-year programme
Wakatipu Active Travel Network $22,844,000
Run marketing communications campaigns to better educate people on transport options.
Not assessed
Marketing communications campaigns to better educate people on transport options.
Develop the detailed business cases, including micro-simulation, incremental BCA, a benefits allocation framework, the Thompson Street to One Mile link and investigation of a public transport only programme.
Not assessed · NZTA · January-October 2018
Development of the required Detailed Business Cases between January and October 2018
Complete the Spatial Framework and design guidelines for the town centre.
Not assessed · QLDC · Early 2018 (February 2018 in executive summary)
Completion of the Spatial Framework by early 2018
Progress parking building and public realm design procurement and financial feasibility to meet the scheduled construction dates.
Not assessed · QLDC · By June 2018 (executive summary)
Completion of the Parking Buildings and Public Realm... construction procurement documentation... by June 2018
Adopt a Transport Alliance of QLDC, NZTA and ORC with a steering group to oversee delivery and appoint suppliers for transport projects; Chief Executives to meet 6 December 2017.
Not assessed · NZTA · As quickly as possible; next CE meeting 6 December 2017
This discussion is now being progressed by the Chief Executives from QLDC, NZTA and ORC
Agree funding apportionment and enter formal multi-party funding agreements, driven by a benefits allocation framework.
Not assessed · NZTA · Detailed planning phase
The funding breakdown needs to be discussed further and agreed between investors
Manage affordability: reduce or defer programme elements, make a case for bulk Crown funding and use PPP delivery for some capex projects.
Not assessed · QLDC · LTP 2018 process
make a case for bulk Crown funding; use PPP delivery for some capex projects
Gareth Noble to retain the nominal role of programme Risk Manager; develop a programme Risk Management Plan and project risk registers.
Not assessed · QLDC · Until each project moves into implementation
It is recommended that Gareth retain the nominal role of Risk Manager
Hold a formal consultation period on the full draft masterplan programme.
Not assessed · QLDC · March 2018
A formal consultation period is scheduled for March 2018
Develop a benefits register and benefits management plan, and a Change Management Plan, as part of the detailed business case.
Not assessed · Detailed business case phase
This map will be used to generate a benefit register for regular reporting and a benefits management plan
Install pedestrian cameras and complete a second Public Life Survey.
Not assessed · QLDC · January 2018
Completion of a second Public Life Survey in January 2018.
Progress the Martin Jenkins economic study on the value of the Queenstown experience and the cost of its degradation.
Not assessed
Progression of an economic study being undertaken by Martin Jenkins
Identify the best transport modelling tool for people, cyclist and vehicle movements in the town centre.
Not assessed · QLDC
Identification of the best form of transport modelling tool
Complete a town centre parking survey.
Not assessed · QLDC · March 2018
Completion of a town centre parking survey in March 2018.
Monitor the first three months of the new Orbus service and discuss performance of the Choice app with NZTA and ORC.
Not assessed · NZTA · From November 2017
Monitoring of the first three months of the new Orbus service operations
Study cost
A study cost has been requested under the Official Information Act or LGOIMA. No figure has been received.
Citation
QLDC. Queenstown Town Centre Masterplan Programme Business Case (2017). Rationale job number J000612.